Lead the Business · Tool
Decisiveness Under Uncertainty
A structured way to think through a decision when you don't have enough information. Five steps. Real movement.
Sources
- Jeff Bezos/Two-way and one-way doors
- Annie Duke/Thinking in Bets (2018)
- John Boyd/The OODA Loop
- Abraham Wald/Survivorship Bias
The Workflow
Five steps from worry to movement
Step 1
Classify
Step 2
Four Lenses
Step 3
Risks
Step 4
Mitigate
Step 5
Next step
Step 1 of 5 · Classify
What is the decision you need to make?
One or two sentences. Phrase it as a choice.
What kind of decision is this?
Reversible decisions can be undone with low cost. Irreversible decisions can’t. Treat them differently.