Lead the Business · Tool
Decisiveness Under Uncertainty
A five-step way to think through a decision when you don't have enough information to be certain.
Sources
- Jeff Bezos/Two-way and one-way doors
- Annie Duke/Thinking in Bets (2018)
- John Boyd/The OODA Loop
- Abraham Wald/Survivorship Bias
The Workflow
Five steps from worry to movement
Step 1
Classify
Step 2
Four Lenses
Step 3
Risks
Step 4
Mitigate
Step 5
Next step
Step 1 of 5 · Classify
What is the decision you need to make?
One or two sentences. Phrase it as a choice.
What kind of decision is this?
Reversible decisions can be undone with low cost. Irreversible decisions can’t. Treat them differently.
Work Together
Want to work through this with your team, live? Talk to Colin.